Moldavia Does Not Want to Repeat Fate of Georgia
13.10.2008 11:14
In early September President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev had a meeting in his Sochi Residence Bocharov Ruchei with Igor Smirnov, Head of the unrecognized Republic of Trans-Dniester. A bit later the Russian President had a meeting with President of Moldavia Vladimir Voronin.
Thus, Russia resumed its active mediatory efforts for resolution of a conflict between Moldavia and Trans-Dniester. Today for Moscow it is very important to prove that problems of separatist enclaves may be solved peacefully as distinct from South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Trans-Dniester declared moratorium on reconciliation talks on August 12 because of no response of the Moldavian authorities to the military aggression of Georgia against South Ossetia.
Experts predict that already by the end of this year the conflicting parties will return to the so-called Plan of Kozak who was a deputy chief of Russian President’s Administration that time. In accordance with that Plan Moldavia was to become “an asymmetric federation”, while Trans-Dniester and Gagauzia to receive a special status and powers to deny draft laws undesirable to the autonomous regions. Moldavia was obliged to remain a neutral state and grant the right to Russia to deploy Russian troops in the Trans-Dniester region for 20 years as “a guarantor” of conflict settlement.
It is well-known at the last moment President of Moldavia Vladimir Voronin under a pressure of the OSCE and local nationalists refused to sign the agreement and claimed that it has a latent goal to legitimize the independence of Trans-Dniester. Thereafter the talks were suspended for a long time.
But now all parties interested in reconciliation agree to continue their dialogue in previous format 5 + 2: Russia, Ukraine, OSCE, Moldavia, Trans-Dniester plus the USA and the EU. Thus, the West will be involved in the resolution but at a leading role of Moscow, which expects to become a principal guarantor of peace between Kishinev and Tiraspol.
It is clear that the West is not delighted with the prospects but at the same time it does not want recurrence of the Georgian scenario. Moreover the September agreement about a three-party meeting of the leaders of Russia, Moldavia and Trans-Dniester still is not implemented yet the hope that it will be held these days exists.
To start with, Moscow wants to sign a declaration on principles of reconciliation with the conflicting parties. A key principle is non-use of force. Moscow repeatedly urged Georgia to sign it, in so doing, last time it did it three days before August 8.
After the declaration is signed, the parties would launch a process of special status determination for Trans-Dniester, and start preparation of an international legal document to secure the standing military and political neutral status of Moldavia and its non-membership in NATO, which is the most important. Kishinev is ready to agree with these provisions and made additional concessions to Tiraspol including the right of Trans-Dniester to secede from Moldavia as secured in the Constitution provided Moldavia loses its actual international juridical personality. It implies first of all a hypothetical membership in NATO, which is discussed by Moldavian politicians every time as soon as the slow talks are suspended.
There is also an informal aspect of the problem. According to the Constitution Vladimir Voronin cannot be re-elected, and instead he is seeking a status of a state uniter in the national history and is making efforts to consolidate the state rule of his party, which is called by the way the Communist Party.
It is well-known that the conflict in the Trans-Dniester region broke out in August 1989 when the Supreme Soviet of the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic granted a status of state language to Moldavian. It caused disaffection of the Russian-speaking population dominating in Trans-Dniester. The situation escalated after the region declared itself the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic in September 1990. March – July 1992 witnessed an armed conflict between Kishinev and Trans-Dniester that took about one thousand lives. Seize-fire was declared in July 1992 when Russia and Moldavia signed a peace agreement. In September 2006, the Trans-Dniester government conducted a national referendum, at which 97.2 per cent of the people supported the policy toward the independence with subsequent joining with Russia. Moreover, 70 per cent of the 400,000 population of Trans-Dniester have Russian passports. As in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Thus, Russia resumed its active mediatory efforts for resolution of a conflict between Moldavia and Trans-Dniester. Today for Moscow it is very important to prove that problems of separatist enclaves may be solved peacefully as distinct from South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Trans-Dniester declared moratorium on reconciliation talks on August 12 because of no response of the Moldavian authorities to the military aggression of Georgia against South Ossetia.
Experts predict that already by the end of this year the conflicting parties will return to the so-called Plan of Kozak who was a deputy chief of Russian President’s Administration that time. In accordance with that Plan Moldavia was to become “an asymmetric federation”, while Trans-Dniester and Gagauzia to receive a special status and powers to deny draft laws undesirable to the autonomous regions. Moldavia was obliged to remain a neutral state and grant the right to Russia to deploy Russian troops in the Trans-Dniester region for 20 years as “a guarantor” of conflict settlement.
It is well-known at the last moment President of Moldavia Vladimir Voronin under a pressure of the OSCE and local nationalists refused to sign the agreement and claimed that it has a latent goal to legitimize the independence of Trans-Dniester. Thereafter the talks were suspended for a long time.
But now all parties interested in reconciliation agree to continue their dialogue in previous format 5 + 2: Russia, Ukraine, OSCE, Moldavia, Trans-Dniester plus the USA and the EU. Thus, the West will be involved in the resolution but at a leading role of Moscow, which expects to become a principal guarantor of peace between Kishinev and Tiraspol.
It is clear that the West is not delighted with the prospects but at the same time it does not want recurrence of the Georgian scenario. Moreover the September agreement about a three-party meeting of the leaders of Russia, Moldavia and Trans-Dniester still is not implemented yet the hope that it will be held these days exists.
To start with, Moscow wants to sign a declaration on principles of reconciliation with the conflicting parties. A key principle is non-use of force. Moscow repeatedly urged Georgia to sign it, in so doing, last time it did it three days before August 8.
After the declaration is signed, the parties would launch a process of special status determination for Trans-Dniester, and start preparation of an international legal document to secure the standing military and political neutral status of Moldavia and its non-membership in NATO, which is the most important. Kishinev is ready to agree with these provisions and made additional concessions to Tiraspol including the right of Trans-Dniester to secede from Moldavia as secured in the Constitution provided Moldavia loses its actual international juridical personality. It implies first of all a hypothetical membership in NATO, which is discussed by Moldavian politicians every time as soon as the slow talks are suspended.
There is also an informal aspect of the problem. According to the Constitution Vladimir Voronin cannot be re-elected, and instead he is seeking a status of a state uniter in the national history and is making efforts to consolidate the state rule of his party, which is called by the way the Communist Party.
It is well-known that the conflict in the Trans-Dniester region broke out in August 1989 when the Supreme Soviet of the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic granted a status of state language to Moldavian. It caused disaffection of the Russian-speaking population dominating in Trans-Dniester. The situation escalated after the region declared itself the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic in September 1990. March – July 1992 witnessed an armed conflict between Kishinev and Trans-Dniester that took about one thousand lives. Seize-fire was declared in July 1992 when Russia and Moldavia signed a peace agreement. In September 2006, the Trans-Dniester government conducted a national referendum, at which 97.2 per cent of the people supported the policy toward the independence with subsequent joining with Russia. Moreover, 70 per cent of the 400,000 population of Trans-Dniester have Russian passports. As in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
