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Regular Spring Exacerbation

08.05.2008 10:08

Vladimir Nesterov

These days the situation on the Georgian-Abkhaz border escalated up to the limit. About 20,000 Georgian troops, dozens of tanks and APCs, aircraft and guns, as well as naval ships have been concentrated close to the border. The ground and aerial reconnaissance efforts became more active.

The world community cannot understand why Georgia needs this demonstration of military force. Respectful politicians try to forecast the developments, they are assisted by veteran political analysts and public figures, and meanwhile the key is so close…

Late in May Georgia will have a parliamentary election, however the country lacks unity, moreover this unity is not foreseeable.

In all appearance, the hot heads planed “a short victorious war” pursuing the far-reaching aims.

Firstly, if the war is unleashed, Saakashvili will have an opportunity to impose a state of emergency in the country in order to consolidate the Georgian electorate and meet expectations of the most militaristic electors.

Secondly, the current exacerbation is unambiguously understood as an offensive reconnaissance. Surely, four shot-down drones are a significant loss to the Georgian aerial fleet. However, their use is nothing else but an effort to discover the Abkhaz air defense system for its subsequent suppression, and to examine opportunities to use the manned aircraft.

Taking into account that the Georgian Armed Forces are equipped not with the up-to-date weapons and sometimes with “the second-hand” ones it is necessary to understand that all Georgian aerial vehicles flying over Abkhazia will share the fate of unfortunate UAVs Hermes. In case of using the aviation, Georgia will lose not only all its planes and helicopters but also all its pilots.

Thirdly, strangely enough but the flights of the aerial vehicles and their losses could serve Saakashvili and his retinue the good turn. They will have a good chance to once again request for assistance from so-called friends of Georgia (Latvia, Lithuania, Bolgaria, Germany, Croatia, Poland, Ukraine, Great Britain and USA) and upgrade its army up to the common NATO standard with up-to-date equipment. And may be to acquire it with a discount based on the wholesale buying.

By the way, the upgrade has its zest. As long as the closest relatives and associates of Saakashvili stand close to the weapon pie, they have a good chance to once again line their pockets and gain good profits from the arms contracts. May be, they will get additional money for the election campaign, or otherwise may be the next presidential term of Saakashvili will be not so long… Each of them understands that it’s necessary to take care of beloved himself. Is it a key to the regular spring exacerbation?