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Syria: Suspended Geopolitical Time before Major Restructuring

20.10.2015 11:34

Thomas Flichy de La Neuville

Much more than oil, the real issue of the Middle East is the domination of the religious epicentre of the planet. For major powers indeed, the military appropriation of sacred places represents a very old attempt to capture the soul of individuals and people. Moreover, the conquest of religious-active places makes it possible to act on the competing civilisations yearning to secure these sacred cities. One manifestation of this will of appropriation, is the manipulation - by outside powers - of the vitality-aggressiveness of the exalted Muslims of the Islamic state. But in the difficult struggle for the conquest of the religious epicentre, the decisive factor will be the consistency of one’s foreign policy. As we know, beyond a certain threshold of contradictions, a foreign policy falls apart like an object submitted to its own resonance frequency.

In their competing ambitions to dominate the religious heart, the three major alliance systems have arrived today to a kind of equilibrium. The Liberal oceanic archipelago, formed by the United States and its allied islands - whether Britain or Japan, has lost the strategic initiative. The artificial caliphate planted in the heart of the Muslim world has rejected the only head capable of guiding its ambitions: Shia Iran. Its expansion is now limited by the very neighbouring states that have favoured its advent. As for the New Mongol Empire, which federates China, Iran and Russia, it includes a forgotten West, which could exert power.

The current geopolitical situation is that of a suspended time. The question is obviously, to know what the strategic aim of the Russians is. Will they be content to protect the Alawite country? Will they push their advantage to destroy the Islamic state? Between these two possibilities, there is a middle ground: to crush the western-backed Islamic militias, get a symbolic victory, and than to open negotiations with the regional powers of the Middle East. Aware of the possibility of a possible regional reconfiguration to the benefit of Russia, the United States, have embarked on a desperate race to avoid a symbolic victory of Vladimir Putin. The coming military events will thus have a decisive influence on the coming diplomatic changes.