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Ukraine will not receive military support from the West

13.08.2015 14:41

Sooner or later combat in Eastern Ukraine will resume, said the president of the Center of System Analysis and Forecasting Rostislav Ishchenko.

The expert believes that the pressure on the international observers (e.g. burnt down OSCE mission's vehicles) is being exerted with the purpose of displacing them from the conflict zone, which will allow Ukraine to renew fighting without any interference. According to him, both sides are currently gauging each other and preparing for battle, as the active phase of the conflict's escalation could come in near August or September.

"Kiev was not going to carry out the Minsk-2 decidions in the first place. It was supposed to ensure the separation of the sides' armed forces, to adopt a law on the special status of Donbass, and so on - all of this was ignored. Therefore, the law on local elections, from reading which it is clear that Kiev would not hold a vote in DPR and LPR, surprised no one. They will simply hold elections on territories under their control of then say that it was impossible to do it in the Donbass because of "agressive militias." DPR and LPR will hold their own elections. By the way, there may not be enough time to organize the vote, because everything is moving in one direction - toward the escalation of the conflict. One way or another - the war is close at hand"- the expert said in a recent interview.

"Russian peacekeeper" asked Rostislav Ishchenko what kind of hostilities' format he meant previously.

"I said that the escalation of the conflict was inevitable, or should we rather call it a return to the military phase. Active steps are possible in the near future and on the longer term, because there were already many repeated cases of aggravation, which then went down. This won't necessarily happen in the near future, although a rapid escalation of the conflict is currently underway", - the expert explained.

It is most likely that the fighting would take the form "militias against the Ukrainian army." But I highly doubt that any state woulddare to officially engage in this conflict with it's armed forces, because it would mean a direct confrontation with Russia, and now there aren't many who would dare risk a nuclear war. This does not mean that mercenaries or quasi-regular military formations won't appear. But at this stage the formal involvement of foreign troops is impossible."